The Observatory
THE year 2014 may present what is likely to be the final stretch in the ZANU-PF succession maze, and possibly settle the game at least in the short term.
By reading the signs inside ZANU-PF, although many may disagree, there is an obvious tension that is predicated on a party that has come to accept the reality that President Robert Mugabe now needs to allow the imminent successor to clearly emerge. The battles around last year’s provincial elections are telling and so is the current muzzling inside the party of what can clearly be seen as positioning for the post Mugabe era.
The heated public debates that transpired during the 2013 provincial elections, at times pitting very senior party members openly against each other, is a sign of the boiling point that the succession tussle has reached.
Within the party structures, there is clear formation of ranks around what have become the mainstream factions; supposedly aligned to Emmerson Mnangagwa and Joice Mujuru.
The party’s lack of courage in filling up the vacant vice presidential position is seen as a tactical move to avoid pre-emptying the colossal clashes in the succession race, which is otherwise expected this year.
Should the party have allowed the filling in of this position, this would have inevitably opened up the tussling for that and other positions that would have invariably fallen vacant; setting alight the sacrosanct succession issue, before the party was ready to openly accommodate it.
By pushing it forward, that has also had the effect of merely swelling the tensions related to the issue.
Given that the party holds its elective congress this year, President Mugabe’s advanced age, and the seeming stagnancy by the party in failing to address mounting socio-economic challenges, there is now no way that the succession issue can be avoided.
Some in the party will see the opportunity to finally settle on President Mugabe’s successor as able to buy both time and capacity to deal with the free falling economy.
By deciding on a successor to President Mugabe, this will incite some level of hope and confidence in both the domestic socio-economic and political space and the international space as that presents a semblance of the party having turned a corner.
The party may also, at least be able to extricate its history of political intransigence should a new leadership emerge this year.
Others within the party will genuinely see succession as able to reform the party given the apparent risks of its continued loss of credibility in failing to deliver on its election promises.
Others have also been in the waiting for too long and see President Mugabe’s succession as ultimately delivering opportunities to become more influential in the party.
Politically, the tensions around succession have been brewing for a long time and should this proceed beyond 2014, this may create conditions for implosions and more brutal fights inside the party – which in essence will make it difficult to reunite the party thereafter.
It therefore seems that ZANU-PF cannot get away without finalising succession to President Mugabe in 2014.
Besides the positioning and tussling we have seen in the past, 2014 will see the intensification of these, as many prepare for the decisive December congress. From the outcome of the 2013 provincial elections, which highly favoured Mujuru, others have already concluded that she will walk away with the presidency come congress.
This is because the provincial teams voted for in 2013, form the Electoral College in the eventual succession race.
Although Mujuru seems to have an upper hand in the provinces, that in itself does not signify the death of Mnangagwa’s chances of landing the coveted post. The battle is a long way off from being concluded.
In fact, the year 2014 gives Mnangagwa ample time to once again apply his astute organising skills and capacity to climb back into the game. ZANU-PF succession factions are not constant but fluid.
Party members change factions with every phase of opportunity that visits them. The only permanent members of the factions are the faction leaders themselves, but not their supporters.
We have even seen some senior party leaders being alleged to be in one faction today but acting otherwise the next day. There are also those that do not seem to have clear and permanent allegiances.
Key party leaders such as: Jonathan Moyo, Patrick Chinamasa, Obert Mpofu, Sydney Sekeramayi and many others are difficult to pin-down to a faction.
This “floating” is even more prevalent in the party structures, including the recently elected provincial executives. Given this uncertainty and the tacit, tactful and strategic organising skills that Mnangagwa seems to have over Mujuru, the game is really still very open.
Mnangagwa still has some space and opportunity to work within before the culmination of the elective congress. The other factor is that of the security sector. The allegiance of the top brass is clearly with President Mugabe but very little is known about it when it comes to the Mnangagwa/Mujuru divide. he senior security sector chiefs, I should say, have really played their game very tactfully and have not endorsed a preferred candidate too early.
By holding that at bay, it nearly makes them the eventual “king makers”, meaning that whoever they then support will certainly have to ride on their terms.
The year 2014 therefore presents opportunities for both Mnangagwa and Mujuru to still rehearse more in order to attract this lingering yet consequential endorsement.
The year also provides the security chiefs opportunities to ensure they further engrain their interests on whoever is in the corner where their dice finally falls.
Many will continue to read the succession tussle as between the “reformists” and “hardliners”.
Although this may be somehow correct, this divide only exists in terms of the tactics that are being employed to fight the succession battles but may not be reflective of how each of the sides will behave should they succeed President Mugabe.
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